Archive for the ‘analysis’ Category

16
Jul

Bias and Bias Control: Poisons in any Debate

   Posted by: Jeremy   in analysis, autism, politics

Lately, with all the controversial material I have been reading (politics, law, autism, the World Cup, ice cream flavors..), I’ve started to think about bias.  Not so much about the bias of reporting, but more on the bias of those receiving the news.  It seems to be rampant, because there are so many methods of filtering out the news that was not there before. 

For instance, when a recent report about the Jobs market showing more jobs lost for the past month, but with an overall unemployment rate going down from 9.7% to 9.5%.  Politically, this was seen as a win for the Administration as they can point to the unemployment rate as a sign that their policies are working, while the opposition point to the increased job losses as a sign that the policies are not working. 

Now, set aside your own biases here, because I’m not defending or justifying either decision, but rather I want to point out that the numbers did not change for either group of observers, but rather they chose to interpret it differently.  The Administration wants to show some kind of progress in this very sensitive issue to justify their policies. The opposition want to see a win for their side in the next election, and therefore would benefit with the perception that the current Administration and ruling party are not doing what needs to be done.  There, they each show their bias in their interpretation of the numbers. 

But it doesn’t stop there.  Because of our perceived need for "balanced" reporting, there are now news outlets, bloggers, and others that manage to broadcast their own biases out there, and in greater numbers than before.  Add in the fact that excellent tools like Google, Yahoo, Bing, and other news aggregate sites have the ability to filter from whom we get our news based on our own biases, we are able to keep to our own ideology and therefore reinforce our own biases with similar biases.  Hence we have conservatives that read, listen and watch the news from "conservative" news organizations and talk shows, while liberals do the same with liberal news organizations and talk shows. 

So, is there a problem with it?  Well, strictly speaking, as Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle would I’m sure submit, if you don’t have alternative view points, you are unable to reach a reasoned decision.  Therefore decisions are made without being thought through, often without obvious flaws being discovered, and therefore huge problems can arise.  Frankly, we make mistakes enough without needing to invite them by not having a reasoned discussion with open minds. 

And then there is the problem of isolation.  While I lived in Germany, there was an awesome, sobering poster in the hall of the (if I remember right) Frankfurt-Hoechst government building.  It said "Germany for Germans, Hessen for Hesseners, Hoechst for Hoechsters, Me for Me" (rough translation).  The picture was, again if I remember right, one of increasing isolation and loneliness, and I got the impression that the poster was to illustrate how being an "isolationist" can ultimately be detrimental.

The idea is that as we start to isolate ourselves, we begin to see the "fox hole" we are in instead of the big picture.  In politics, we see only what our "party" sees.  In Autism, we see only what we want to see (vaccines vs. genetics).  In sports, we see only our team and no one else’s team.  And because we isolate ourselves in this manner, we find it easy to dehumanize others.  Once someone is dehumanized, it’s easy to disrespect them, which can further escalate to feeling indifferent or even violent against the opposition (which ever it is). 

So what can we do?  Try to see both sides of the issue.  Here the arguments on both sides, understand them, and then make decisions based on those arguments.  Sure, you will still be deciding with your own bias, but at least you have given the other side a chance to explain their positions, and calmly discuss the benefits and detriments that come with each position. 

Perhaps if this type of civil discourse were encouraged more in popular media, we will see it bleed into the general populace. 

Here is my problem:  I don’t want to get another laptop, but I need a mobile device that will let me accomplish some specific tasks.  Tasks like writing and editing documents, surfing the web, checking and responding to email, watching videos and listening to music, and a number of other very specific tasks, and all while on the go.  I had hoped that the iPod Touch would take care of all that, but it’s lacking in a couple of areas, mostly because while I like the virtual keyboard it’s too small to type fast enough to keep up with my brain.  So, taking a page from Patrick Thornton’s blog on how he would use the iPad, let me outline mine:

On The Go:

  • The Bus and LightRail:  I currently commute using the MAX bus to TRAX up to the University of Utah.  Using a laptop is awkward at best, because of how close the seats are.  The frustration comes from the form factor:  the clamshell may allow for a touch-type keyboard, but it doesn’t allow for easy use with the seat in front of me.  The iPod Touch works well in this environment, even when I am cramped in a corner, but the screen is too small for me to do any effective typing.  Unlike many younger than I am, I am not adept at "texting", and therefore my thumbs seem to be good for only one thing:  the spacebar. 

    It’s in this case that a tablet with a virtual keyboard would be ideal.  It’s small enough to pull out without taking too much effort, and typing on the screen within my lap would take less space than using a clamshell screen.  At this point, since I would naturally be looking at the right angle to my lap, I could see what I was typing without having to adjust a screen to the right angle.  Also, given 3G or the eventually promised WiFi on the bus system Internet access would allow me to be productive the minute I’m able to sit down. 

  • The Car:  While I normally drive the car, and therefore never use mobile devices while driving, it would be nice to have a device with a large screen for the kids to see while driving.  Some have suggested that I get a DVD player, but I don’t want to mess with DVD’s, as my son with Autism tends to break them easily.  That’s mostly why I opted for the Apple TV to begin with.  So while DVD’s are out, I need another solution.  An iPod Touch works great for one child, but what about the other one?  Well, we could use two iPod Touches, but by that point we are pretty much spending the same amount for an iPad, which both could see.  Add a car mount to be between the front seats and an audio cable to pug into the car stereo, and the device starts to make sense.
  • Walking:  Even my little 12" Powerbook G4 is pretty heavy when I carry it around, though it’s dimensions are the same (if thicker) than the iPad.  The weight starts to tell when carrying books for students, note pads for book and software ideas, etc.  In fact, I often need to switch from my message bag to a backpack just to carry the laptop, power cable, etc. with me.  The iPad would take a lot of weight away, making my daily walks easier to manage. 
  • Long Commutes:  I commute an average of 2.5 hours a day, it being about 1 hour 15 minutes (give or take) from my house to my office, and then the same back.  Long commutes mean the need for long battery life.  Here my iPod does ok, but the battery is really running low by the end of the day from all the activity I use it for, and that’s with a 6 hour video time.  That’s also roughly what most modern laptops get as well, though that is shortened by the boot/wake delay.  With a tablet that is always on and has at least 10 hours of battery life, I can not worry about having to charge the device at work as well as at home.  The benefits here is a device that is always on, therefore has no wait time. 
  • Flying:  Occasionally my job requires me to travel.  Flying is troublesome enough without having to lug a laptop with me.  It takes up a lot of valuable space in my carry-ons, which I can use for something else.  A flat tablet would give me the work ability I would need while flying, and the long battery life would let me watch those videos I want to see.  And even if I needed to take a laptop with me, I would prefer to use a tablet in the cramped areas of the airplane (as I inevitably get to sit with the other larger guys on the flight) with more comfort than the clamshell form factor. 

In the Office:

  • Notes:  Typing on a larger screen makes it easier to take notes than on my iPod Touch, and therefore would make it that much more useful than the iPod Touch. A laptop would be awkward to carry into a meeting, use, and set aside when not needed.  Not to mention battery life issues and the screen going blank when I don’t want it to.
  • Presentations:  Using a laptop for presentations becomes tedious, because it requires a lot of hookups and cables, a place to set it, and I become tethered to be within reach.  A tablet with a display cable that was long enough (or could be extended) to allow me to wander about with the presentation in my hands would make that much easier, even if all my slides were just in a PDF format.  I could simply swipe through each of them if needed.  Creating or editing presentations isn’t that important, though it would be nice.  I have really wanted to have a version of PowerPoint or Keynote on the iPod Touch for a long time, if only just as a viewer.  Having it available for real makes it that much better.

At Home:

  • On the Couch:  Right now having a laptop is not a good option for me while sitting at my couch with the kids running around, trying to get something accomplished.  You see, both my kids like to grab the screen and pull it down their way (opposite me) to see what I’m doing.  Almost immediately it means having to quickly stop their action, which gets in the way of what I’m trying to accomplish.  It can also potentially damage the screen (though to date I’ve been lucky with my PowerBook).  A tablet would make working from the couch with the kids much easier, as they can see what I’m doing immediately without having to move a screen or pull the thing out of my hands. 
  •  Reading:  I am a prolific reader.  I love to read, and use my iPod Touch extensively for reading in both Stanza and the Kindle app.  I don’t use a laptop because it’s awkward to read from while sitting or lounging on the couch or bed.  A tablet of some sort would be ideal in this situation, where the clamshell form factor just isn’t.  It also would beat out the smaller tablets because of real estate.
  • Special Needs Interaction:  My son is autistic, and as such has very special needs.  Part of that is his need to find a way to focus his mind in order to calm down.  Currently the iPod Touch works for that, though it’s very small and doesn’t have much real estate for him to work.  I would never let him use a clamshell device because he would inevitably break the screen because it moves.  With a single tablet device with little to no moving parts all the concerns about his breaking is has been reduced.  He’s very careful about placing large things like books down, and so wouldn’t throw the iPad.  There are also several apps that are targeted directly to children and adults with Autism, making the iPhone OS an excellent choice for me.  Is anyone aware of Autism apps for Android?  I would like to know.

So what about the complaints against the iPad?

  • No Flash:  I hate Flash, though not because of the platform, just for what it’s used.  Flash to me means annoying ads that fly in front of text I’m trying to read for the news.  I don’t play Flash games, and I don’t use Hulu (I found it very unfriendly to use).  When we use YouTube as a family (such as viewing rollercoaster rides for our son), we use the Apple TV primarily.  Why do I like to avoid Flash?  Because it gets in the way.  Sure, other technologies will probably come along that the iPad supports that will get in the way to, but right now it’s Flash that is my big complaint.  If there is a Flash only website, I tend to avoid it like I would lima beans.

    Some may say I’m missing out on the richness of the Web by avoiding Flash, but I would counter by saying they are missing out of my patronage by forcing me to use an intrusive program that defeats the purpose of visiting the site in the first place.  It would be like forcing me to install Adware just to use an operating system.  I would quickly find another operating system.

  • No Camera:  I’ve never once used video conferencing, even when I had cameras.  Text typing tends to be faster, and I don’t have to be dressed up or shave my face to use it.  Audio chat is fine too.  That, and I don’t see video chat on a Tablet being very useful, because it would be hard to use the tablet still while talking.  Nope, for video chat, a clamshell format would be ideal.  And if I really want to video chat, it would be from my office on my iMac. 
  • No Multitasking:  This isn’t strictly true, as the iPod Touch already multitasks, in that I can get email, have a webpage load, play a song with iTunes, and still play a game.  It is more accurate to say that multitasking all apps is not available, and generally, I don’t need to.  The only types of apps I would like to have multitask for me is a telephony app like a VoIP app, a voice chat app, or a text chat app.  Other than that, I don’t use it a lot, and have learned to do without with these all running at the same time.  As I use one tool at a time, and don’t use it much in the background until I come back to it, I don’t really see the need for "multitasking".  How do you multitask with your mobile devices?  Let me know, because it would be interesting to see how people use multitasking on mobile devices.
  • No Physical Keyboard:  This is true, though quite honestly I consider it a plus in my book.  I would much rather use an onscreen tablet than a clamshell while out and about, because it doesn’t require as much space to use.  Why is that?  Because with a clamshell on your lap, you need to either lean back to see what is going on, or rotate the screen back (almost doubling the flat area of the laptop) to see what you are doing.  Nope, this is definitely a benefit of the Tablet.
  • Closed System:  While I’m all for Open Source, and have taught and worked with Linux as an Operating System, for a tablet device to work well I think it needs to have a controlled environment.  Otherwise you start running into battery issues, performance issues, and all sorts of headaches.  I honestly think this is why Google has Android and their app store:  It keeps the apps somewhat controlled, and therefore controls the user environment.  For small computing devices, I see this as a huge benefit, and so the iPhone OS isn’t a barrier for me, it’s a blessing.
  • Not A Full OS:  Why do you need a full OS for a tablet anyway?  Most are slow enough on more beefy hardware like a laptop, let alone a device built for less power consumption.  I’ve heard this argument before, and I can’t for the life of me see the benefit of a full OS on a tablet vs. a specialized OS for the tablet.  All I can think of is software.  But why would you want to run a full fledged desktop program on a tablet?  Most desktop programs are designed for a mouse and keyboard input setup, which doesn’t port over easily to a touchscreen (another reason Flash would be a beast on a tablet).  While you won’t find a replacement for Photoshop or Dreamweaver for the iPhone, I wouldn’t be surprised if similar apps start to show their heads now that the iPad allows them far more real estate to work with. 
  • AT&T As The Partner:  Simple:  Don’t use them.  The 3G version is open, though there isn’t another carrier in the US that will support it, and with a MiFi-type device from any other carrier, you have the same benefits as the 3G version, but on the WiFi only version.  While this could be a valid complaint for the iPhone itself, I don’t see it as a problem on the iPad. 
  • There’s No Phone:  VoIP with a headset aside, did you really think you were going to put something this big against your face?  Really?  The iPad and tablets don’t replace smartphones, and they are not meant to. 
  • No USB/SD Card Slots:  This I can see as a legitimate complaint, though the more the device has to power another device connected to it, the more it will deplete the battery.  While it would be nice to have an SD card slot for additional storage or as a way to quickly upload video/photos from a camera, there are adapters out there for SD and USB connections for cameras that upload into their iPhoto app.  And, just between you and me, I have yet to fill my iPod Touch 16 GB and use it all. 
  • The Name/It’s Made By Apple/It’s Overpriced:  The name argument is just, well, stupid.  Does it really matter that much to you?  Really?  Well, you can get the Adam if you want, or Nook, or Kindle, or Pete.  Heck, you can call it Pete, or iPete, or RePete.  I don’t consider that a real complaint.  Don’t want people looking at the name?  Get a skin for your RePete, or better yet, make one.  It shouldn’t be that hard, I would imagine.

    As for it being made by Apple and you for some reason hate them because of their marketing success, personal bias, or resentment of how they treat Windows as a platform; well, there are lots of other tablets coming to market, each with their pros and cons.  Some with Windows 7, some with Android, and eventually some with the Chrome OS if rumors are true.  If you don’t like a product, you can get one elsewhere.  It’s not going to hurt my feelings, and it shouldn’t hurt yours if I prefer an Apple product or experience.  As long as it does what you need it to do, isn’t that really the point? 

    Pricing for the iPad is actually pretty standard with most retail outlets.  T-Shirts tend to be marked up 56% or so, as are most other products from the cost of the company to produce them.  That’s because they have to pay wages, marketing, distribution, and research.  But if you want something cheaper, I’m sure other companies will cut into their profit margins to accommodate. 

So, that is my list.  Honestly, I see the iPad and other similar tablets taking the place of most netbook functionality because of the new form factor.  I don’t see them replacing laptops, netbooks, or desktops completely, as those who don’t want to have a desktop computer would probably prefer a laptop for their work (like students in a dorm).  But I don’t think that having a laptop, a desktop, and a tablet will be a necessity.  The tablet would make one or the other unnecessary (at least for me), and which depends on your needs.

So tell me what you think.

Lately the news has been running a story from the Center of Cognitive Neuroscience in Lyon where Angela Sirigu reports those children diagnosed with Asperger’s Syndrome who inhale the hormone oxytocin were able to pay more attention to eyes and faces, and were more likely to understand social cues (like being ignored) in game simulations.  It was reported in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 

Oxytocin is a hormone that is released during the mother-infant bonding process, usually the first social bonding that happens with children in their lives.  The research here identified the need for oxytocin in the system of those children with Asperger’s to better identify socially with those around them.  The research was completed with 11 men and 2 women with Asperger’s, and the control group was equally as large. 

The research is very interesting, because it identifies and treats a huge hurdle in the lives of those with high functioning Autism:  social awareness.  With the introduction of this hormone treatment, those with Asperger’s (at least) can identify with their surroundings socially and more comfortably. 

Of course it requires a hormone inhaler, and hormone therapy can be dangerous if not properly metered and monitored.  There are potential risks to any hormone therapy, and we have yet to see if there are any long term dangers to taking Oxytocin for longer periods of time.  I’m hopeful that there will be no dangers to cancers and other problems that accompany many hormone therapies of other types, because I imagine a lot of parents will be jumping on the oxytocin bandwagon quickly and early. 

But keep in mind that this isn’t a cure-all for Autism.  There are a lot of other problems that accompany Autism beyond social interaction.  Currently my son is working through his non-verbal issues, which have little to do with the social aspect of Autism.  So before we all think that we have found a "cure" (really just a treatment to manage Autism), let’s take a step back and take the research for what it is:  a sign that there are potential treatments for a real medical disorder. 

Oh, and because it’s a real medical disorder, that means insurance companies should cover Autism and it’s therapies. 

27
Jan

The iPad: First Impressions: REVISED

   Posted by: Jeremy   in Apple, analysis, autism

This has been a very long time in coming.  For the past 3 years it has been rumored that Apple will revive the MessagePad, and this time base it off of the iPhone multitouch technology.  It was rumored to be called the iPod Slate, iSlate, iPad, and various other references.  Lots of suggestions and comments were made, wishlists were created, including my own.  Now that I have seen Apple’s presentation that was made today about the iPad, I want to go over my list:

  1. Reasonable Price:  This was number one, and I think Apple hit it on the head.  At $499 for a 16GB WiFi only device, it’s killer.  It’s $130 more for a 3G enabled device, which has unlimited use on AT&T for $29.99.  If AT&T would let VoIP work on it, I could replace my cell phone for something far more valuable to me.  Yes, I’d say it’s a good price.  ^_^
  2. Multiple Apps At Once:  This one wasn’t even touched on, so it most likely didn’t happen.  That’s a shame, because a lot of education buyers will want a book that would keep their place while they switch to their document, and then switch back.  No smile for this one.
  3. iWork:  Woohoo!  The interface looks killer, and the programs are priced well.  You can get any one of the three iWork apps for $9.99, so it’s a total $30 for the whole suite.  And it’s a full suite, not a watered-down version.  That’s killer.  ^_^
  4. Voice To Text:  We will have to see if the Dragon Naturally Speaking app will work for this.  With a built in microphone, it should, or at least with a microphone jack, so I’m giving it a smile until proven otherwise.  ^_^
  5. Bluetooth:  This one I’m not going to assume works, though I really hope it does.  Bluetooth is built into it, but there is no indication that one can tether anything to it, nor any mention of a bluetooth keyboard option.  Instead, there is a dock with a keyboard.  Well, we will see. It’s been confirmed by PC World that a Bluetooth keyboard can be tethered. That’s a great step in the right direction. ^_^
  6. Open 3G/4G:  Yes!  It’s immediately open using a GSM microSIM card, and is unlocked!  Anyone can use any service they would like, if they get the 3G model, as long as the service is compatible.  I would say that this is a very good thing, because while I don’t have any personal problems with AT&T, I don’t want to be a slave to any one price structure.  Though, at $30.00 a month for unlimited use, it’s a hard price to compete with.  ^_^
  7. Display Port:  There isn’t a display port, but it’s claimed you can hook it up to a projector.  My guess is, it’s through one of the docks that was presented, though The coverage I read didn’t specify that.  I’ll have to verify that to be sure, and find out how much the docks will cost.  Also, will the keyboard dock work on an iPod Touch? The display dock is $29, and the keyboard dock is $69. I think those are pretty reasonable prices.
  8. Access To Stored Files:  The assumption is that iWork files are accessible, and could be shared with versions of iWork on the Mac.  That’s what the presentation said, but didn’t explain how.  Is it synced?  Do you have access to your stored files?  I don’t know, and until I do, I’m going to keep this one with no smile. It’s Smile Time! It’s confirmed that there will be a central, mountable file store that even third party apps will be able to access. ^_^
  9. Full iTunes:  I don’t think we have a full iTunes, though it almost looks like it.  I wonder how it will compare.
  10. Video Conferencing:  That’s a big, fat, no.  Pity.
  11. FM Radio:  With 3G this wouldn’t be too big a deal, but it still would have been nice.
  12. GarageBand for Podcasting:  I guess I’ll just have to look for an App for that.
  13. Battery Life:  I didn’t have my hopes up for this one, but boy was I floored with a whopping 10 hours of battery life!  I figure it will be a full day’s usage, which is at least twice more than I get from my iPod Touch.  ^_^
  14. iBooks:  This one has me intriqued…  Will it be a part of iTunes?  Or will it be another application entirely that I can get for free from Apple and use on my Mac as well as on the iPad?  I’d like to be able to add any ePub books I already have into the iBooks reader.  If I can’t, then I think I’ll stick with Stanza as my default reader, which should look killer on the iPad.  ^_^

So, those are my takes on what was presented.  A lot of it comes from my focus on what I wanted.  Gaming looks awesome, but I’m not a big gamer anymore.  But the thing is, this device is so cool and powerful, I could easily imagine a version of World of Warcraft coming specifically for the iPad.  That would be cool.  But the best thing that came from this device is easily the price.  It’s priced right there with a Netbook, and does just about everything I would want from a mobile computing environment.

What’s even more exciting is the possibilities made available for the Autism community.  Here is a device, much like an AAC device, and yet it’s not in the $10,000 range.  Therefore it’s possible to use the already killer AAC software available on the iPod Touch on the iPad, and have it be more functional.  That, to me, is a huge benefit that will probably never get mentioned.

The other day I was talking with the director of another department at the University about autism and people we know who are autistic or have autistic children.  She mentioned that her friends had an autistic child that had all the hallmark signs of autism with anti-social behavior and highly developed, focused attention and interests.  She quickly made the connection between the behavior of her friends and their child.  Her first suggestion was that the child was obviously much like them, being highly educated, focused, and being somewhat introverted.

Well, just recently, UC Davis has reported that Autism in the State of California has tended to cluster around the higher educated areas of the State where the higher educated tend to live, as reported by the San Diego Union-Tribune, along with a number of other news sources.  What’s interesting is the correspondence of these higher educated areas with those of Universities.  For instance, the cluster in San Diego is around UCSD (which, fascinatingly enough, I had intended at one time to attend for my Ph.D studies).

So does this mean that intelligent people will naturally have autistic children?  Not necessarily, for that would mean that intelligence is genetic, which is a claim I am in no position to make.  It would also suggest that autism is a natural extension of intelligence, which is another claim that I am not prepared to make.  But on the whole, it generally means that autism tends to cluster together in some way, and seems to have some correlation to higher educated societies and communities.  This is an interesting social study that I’m sure will be fascinating for general data, though not really useful in the education, development, or treatment of autistic children.

Still, like your average trivia, it’s an interesting fact to know, even though it’s as useful as knowing the first recorded recipe for hamburgers was Roman, or the first steam engine was invented by the ancient Greeks.  Interesting to know, not very applicable to the current situation.

Lately Nathan Bransford, a literary agent and writer that I have been following for some time, has been posting information about the future of books.  With the Kindle, Nook, and the much-anticipated Apple tablet (which I have been blogging about for 3 years in high hopes), it seems that many people are already writing eulogies for the hard copy, bound book.  Often I’m surprise with the comments he receives from his readers, many if not all are writers in various stages of publication (from established to hopeful, like me). 

The discussion has interested me on four levels: as a trained Historian, a trained Computer Technician, an avid Reader (consumer), and a Writer (instructional and hopeful novelist).  Here is my view of each:

Historian

Books as we know them have gone though a lot of changes ever since man had learned to use writing as a method of communication.  What started as tablets of clay became scrolls of paper and papyri, which then changed to parchment and a codex, or bound book.  The codex didn’t change for thousands of years, and now a move from the printed to the digital page is being made.  But is it really so recent?

Computers originally had a "monitor" that was a printer, printing out the results of commands as one navigated, executed, and errored their way through programs.  The digital monitor, the one we know and love today, both simplifies the reading of computer results, but also saves a tremendous amount of paper.  And ever since print could be read on a computer screen, people have been reading books on the computer screen. 

So the idea of an eBook is not new, but rather the mainstreaming of the eBook is what is so scary.  Just as ancient Egypt was afraid of the parchment codex (threatened their trade in papyri), those tied to the old methods of distributing the story both fear and hate the coming mainstream eBook consumption.

Computer Technician

The technology for eBooks have been around for years.  I had eReader on my PocketPC for years, and I loved being able to read while on the go.  But before it could become mainstreamed, there are some factors that needed to be met:

  1. Battery Life:  The early PDAs were terrible in their battery life.  This hampered reading, as you needed to either change your AA’s or recharge your book within just a few hours of getting into it. 
  2. Performance:  There are a lot of old eBook readers out there that were so clunky to use they were not worth it.  I went through several before I settled on the couple of eBook readers I use today.  It all came down to performance.  I was looking for something that was easy to use, easy to customize, and had a small memory footprint (so I could have more books in less space).
  3. Storage:  What good is it to have an eBook reader if you can only store at the most 10 books?  If you are going abroad, or spend a lot of time commuting, just a couple of books will not satisfy. 
  4. Reputation and Appearance:  eBooks needed to have a good reputation behind them, or come from a reputable source.  Often times some books were, or at least appeared, to be bad copies, which creates distrust.

Others may outline more points, but it is my humble opinion that technology needed to advance to this point before the eBook could have even thought of being mainstreamed.  With ebook readers like the Kindle, Nook, and even with current Windows Mobile, Android, WebOS, and iPhone OS devices out there, we have finally made it to the point where big names feel comfortable in releasing their books in eBook form to reach a profitable audience. 

The thing is, dedicated devices are, at least in my opinion, doomed to a quick death.  Part of the reason why I have an iPod Touch instead of a Kindle or Nook is because I need more than just an eBook reader.  eBooks are a convenience, not a lifestyle.  I want other conveniences to be just as convenient, and preferably on the same device.  This is part of the reason why the iPod Slate (or Apple Tablet) is so important to me as a device, and why I have been so keen on it’s release. 

Reader

I love to read, but I find that I have little time at home with the kids, and very little time at work.  But I also have a long commute, in which reading becomes convenient.  It’s also convenient to work on my novel, get some work done, and listen to my music/old radio shows.  Suddenly carrying around even one bound book can take up more room than I am willing to give, as my bag becomes overloaded with various other devices.  But carrying an entire library in my pocket, which also will play my music, videos, and allow me to do some text editing; that’s the way to go. 

Now I’ve heard the arguments against eBook readers because of eye-strain.  Well, I don’t strain any more with an eBook reader on my iPod Touch than I do with any other book, and I can guarantee that, in the dead of night in winter, when the bus or train is dark, I can read my book without having to have a separate light.  I can also adjust the text on the book to make it larger or smaller based on my needs.  You can’t do that with a printed book. 

Also, there is the convenience of purchasing and downloading the books.  I have the Kindle app for iPhone, eReader app from Fictionwise, the Barnes & Noble eReader app, and Stanza.  I have tried each one, and my favorite two so far are the Kindle app and Stanza.  Kindle because of it’s flow (they have changed it a lot since Amazon purchased Stanza), and Stanza because it’s so convenient to download books from the Gutenberg Press (free books in the Public Domain).  They are easy to configure, and easy to manage.  Within a few seconds I will have several new books that I have purchased and downloaded, ready to read.  It sure beats waiting for a book to ship, I can tell you!

Writer

Some day I hope to be published, as soon as I write something that I wouldn’t be embarrassed to have someone else read.  I would also like my book to be quickly accessed by those who are interested, and I want to write a story that will flow well enough regardless of which format it is in.  So you can imagine that the interest in eBooks has had me thinking, and I’m watching this very closely.  Adding multimedia components for higher-end readers or computers (like the Slate, hint, hint!) can change a story as much as adding slides to a presentation, or video to a musical performance.  All of a sudden you have more content to relate to, all at the same time.  It’s challenging, it’s exciting, and it’s a little scary. 

So what exactly will be the future of books?  I think most analysts out there are right:  the codex book will not be going away anytime soon.  There is a feeling of intimacy that comes from reading a well-worn and well-read book again and again that you don’t get from an eBook.  Because of this a good hardcover or even paperback will not go away entirely.  But I think you will see a huge shift from the published book to the eBook by casual readers in particular.  The idea that one can turn on their device while waiting in line, riding a bus, or riding in the back seat of a car, read a couple of pages, and then turn around and do something else when the need arises?  It’s huge, and it’s happening more every day.  Add always-on 3G or 4G networking and integrated media, and you have a revolution that will absorb the mainstream out of pure convenience. 

Are there problems?  Of course!  But there were problems with first Gutenberg Press, the codex, the papyrus scroll, and even the clay tablet.  The real question is not whether or not we will manage with what we have, but rather how soon it will take the industry to adapt and make the situation better. 

With the latest developments of hostility between Fox News and the White House, and the general feeling of incredulity within the Media with this open declaration of hostility, my mind has been focused on the impact of media, if any, on the general populace.  This seemed to coincide with an old tradition that I had and I am now resurrecting:  listening to the infamous original radio broadcast of Orson Wells’ The War of the Worlds, and coupling it with the propaganda broadcasts made by Germany to England during World War II. 

In both cases, the Radio was the primary method of external communication to a mass audience.  Sure, telephone existed, and people could call each other using a handset, but to reach a large audience Radio was the method of choice.  And, like all methods of communication, information and entertainment were coupled together in one way or another. 

Germany’s use of radio gave rise to Lord Haha and his spread of propaganda touting the strength of the German war machine and the futility of England’s defense.  He raised the spectre of the Soviet threat, the willingness of the Germans to let bygones be bygones, and the defeats of Allied forces as proof that England needed to get out of the war.  As with all democracies, Germany assumed that England would capitulate if the people were to rise en masse to demand surrender to the Germans. 

The Brits, on the other hand, were more savvy than Germany I think had understood, having had their face slapped after the Munich treaty was completely disregarded and Neville Chamberlain was disgraced.  They instead remained vigilant against the German propaganda, no matter now disheartening it was, and with the assistance of all the Allies, managed to defeat Nazi Germany, ending what began in World War I. 

The broadcast of War of the Worlds was very different, as a small group of actors used the powerful media of radio to induce mass panic across the American countryside and through all of New York through a clever adaptation of H. G. Wells’ War of the Worlds.  Because of the realistic presentation, the excellent understanding of their medium, and the credence given to the one mass portal of information, they managed to send the entire East Coast into the hills, running for their lives. 

In both instances, radio was used as a tool, and as a tool to frighten or dishearten people.  What’s interesting is the reaction of the target audience.  How much trust can we place in the media, or those feeding information to the media?  It all comes down to where we get our sources of information, and how much we are willing to research those topics in debate. 

Today, with the benefit (or detriment, you decide) of the Internet, first person accounts are more likely to be provided, and collaborative information provided through multiple sources.  If the War of the Worlds were conceived and broadcasted today, Twitter would quickly expose it as a piece of fiction through first hand accounts of people in Grover’s Mill stating the lack of a cyllinder in their back yard. 

Does this mean that media has lost it’s power?  By no means!  Many people find a single trusted source of information, and makes it their only source.  They don’t like getting multiple points of view, because they don’t want to take the time or make the effort to do the research themselves.  Instead they trust their news source to do it for them.  Whether they be Liberal or Conservative, the same holds true.

It also means that more complex and devious methods of propaganda, by any group, is easier to distribute.  With the complexity of media outlets now, one merely needs to identify their target audience, and utilize their one favorite method of communication.  It could be Radio, it could be Cable News, it could be Blogs, it could be Google News..  It doesn’t matter, because once you find a person’s habitual media source, you have them right where you want them. 

So in the end, the more things change, the more things stay the same. 

20
Oct

Taxes and the Romans: I Look Into History

   Posted by: Jeremy   in analysis, politics

Lately I have taken to reading Theodor Mommsen’s History of Rome under the Emperors, and I have to say I am absolutely enthralled.  I love Roman History, but in particular I like to look at how complex governing systems worked.  Rome was a very complex system from it’s Republic to even under the Emperor, and continues to surprise me with every new look.

Lately I have been reading the history under Vespasian to Caraculla, which is the Second Semester in the book.  Here Mommsen talks about the Imperial income, and how the government made money. Now I realize that I will be talking in generalities, so please forgive my lack of specifics.  This was just an idea I had from a night reading over a couple of nights.  I do not have exact numbers, and so I remain vague.  If you would like to provide specifics, feel free to do so in the comments.

Now, current governments make money through taxation.  For the American people, this means taxation at the Federal, State, and even municipal level through income taxes, excise taxes, property taxes, and sales tax.  Income is then generated, and distributed for the good of those governed.  That’s the theory, at any rate.  Whether or not it’s to the benefit of those governed is a completely different discussion that I want to avoid for this post. 

What’s interesting in Antiquity is the method of income:  It’s not taxation, though taxes did exist, but rather through government monopolies and land usage fees (rents).  The State controlled all mines, and the wares sold were 100% profit for the State.  Lands were, once a region was made a Province, automatically owned by the State, and any that wished to "buy" it back could do so through annual payments, and even pay it off completely within a short amount of time.  Those wishing only to use land for pasture, planting, etc, could then pay a usage fee based on the type of usage.

Because of these sources of income, the Roman State had roughly a 4% tax it levied on it’s citizens, and even less on provincials.  I found this almost incredulous, but yet it was enough to build massive roads and works all across the Empire, not the least of which were in Rome itself. 

So why isn’t this same method of State income still in use today?  A lot has to do with the history between Rome and now.  Let’s look at property first.  The Feudal period in Europe caused a huge backlash against the idea of a central government taking ownership of land.  Partly because of small feudal families wanting to keep their lands, partly because of the concerns of religious land ownership, it all came down to the right to own property that is protected by the US constitution.

With State-run monopolies, they were generally discouraged (with a few exceptions) with various experiments in various other countries failing.  That, and the fear of Communism becoming the new world economic model starting in the early 1900′s. 

Still, it’s interesting to see how different Governments have chosen to make their capital, and what they choose to do with it. 

Lately I have noticed a backlash of sorts against the status quo.  Sure, we have seen this in every age when society gets to a specific point, but this one seems to be more extreme, at least in my opinion.  Perhaps it’s because I’m looking for this element, or perhaps it’s because my attention has been focused in this way, but it seems that the modern world of large homes, expensive vehicles, and modern conveniences is being seen as a distraction.

For instance, the Tiny Home movement talks about living in a small space, between 86 sq. ft. to up to 500 sq. ft. (about).  These are dimentions of homes that have existed for centuries.  Log cabins, tents, cottages, etc. have all been built small.  Why?  Generally because building a home is time consuming, and generally you need to get into the house before the elements become too extreme for survival.  Therefore people learned to live in small spaces out of necessity.  As such, their "private time" was spent outdoors in woods, fields, mountains, etc. 

The really interesting thing about the current housing market is the size of the homes being built are larger than many of the castles built in the Middle Ages, or even many of the Roman villas (with a few exceptions of both, to be sure).  They are built to contain an entire ecosystem consisting of a local pub, dance hall, hotel for vistors with washing facilities, and theatre.  How much really does get used, and for how often?  Then there is the maintenance:  repairs, cleaning, dusting, decorating..  the list goes on, and all for space that is hardly ever used.  How easy would it be to replace it with, say, renting a space at a local restaurant, town hall, church, etc. and save the money you would have otherwise spent yearly for the upkeep of a space you may never use again. 

The tiny home community has worked on building a home that fits their needs, while limiting the excess that has come to represent the modern debt-based economy.  Often times modern conveniences are worked around for convenience to the builder, so things such as toilets are turned into composting toilets or outhouses, again a throw back to the chamber pots and latrines of the early decades. 

Farming is also making a comeback, or at least gardening.  Partly for help in the food expenses, partly because it keeps one’s mind busy on something that is rewarding in and of itself, more people are growing vegetables and fruits in their yards than before.  Urban Farming has become a new focus for those in apartments or suburban areas, with window boxes full of tomatoes or salad greens gracing many a home.  This, again, is a throwback to a time when gardening provided a huge amount of variety to the diet. 

Mass transportation has been growing, and more people are buying homes where they can walk or bike to work or to a transit station and commute to work that way.  Before the Model T when the Automobile was king and represented the wealth of those who purchased them, people would often walk if they didn’t have the convenience of a buggy and/or horse.  Bicycles were also very popular because of the level of mobility they provided the individual.  All before the automobile became the new standard of travel. 

It’s interesting to see how the failing economy that was based on so many unsustainable practices has changed the outlook of people in general.  More people are willing to commute to work, more people are willing to due without the guest wing in their new giant home for something a bit more manageable, or people looking for a deeper connection to their land than a lawn that is only mowed and never walked on. 

The really surprising thing is the move toward more primitive living: i.e. the move away from indoor plumbing.  Perhaps it’s just a fringe, but people who currently live in modern homes are building their own dwellings without the convenience of indoor plumbing.  Water is brought in from a well, stream, sistern, or other outdoor source.  The toilet is processed into "humanure", and used for a garden, while gray water is filtered out and used for gardening as well.  Hygenics aside, the fact that people are choosing to make this move is fascinating. 

So I suppose the only question that remains is where this movement will end.  My guess is the housing market will see a reduction in house sizes in response, lot sizes will increase relative to the size of the home, and more gardens will be grown for home-grown produce.  For some reason, though, I don’t see the general public giving up their indoor plumbing.

11
Aug

The Illusion of Democracy

   Posted by: Jeremy   in analysis, politics

Last night I was watching a show with a mock pageant, one where the viewers participated in the outcome.  The viewers voted on the finalists, those selected by the judges to be of the best quality, thereby controling the outcome of the pageant to only those who were acceptable to the judges.  This is not unlike any reality show, where choices are already narrowed, making the decision easier.

Rewind about two thousand years.  Rome was a dominant power, having emerged from their Republic after a series of civil wars between powerful political and military men.  Now, at the end of the last pretexts, an imperial dictatorship was put in place, though Octavian, now Augustus, kept the pretext of choice and the Republic by having a Senate for which the people voted; a Senate with little power.  But the pretext, or the illusion of choice allowed the people to feel as though they still had a voice and could participate in politics.

Now fast forward to the 1780′s, when the United States of America was being formed. The Founding Fathers, finding problems with the Articles of Confederation in their effectiveness, met to draw up the Constitution.  This is when the three branches of Government were defined, their spheres of influence set.  Part of that definiton process outlined the methods of appointment.  Because of concerns regarding the common man’s understanding of the issues, an intermediary was created to vote on their behalf.  This intermediary, the Electoral College, can vote any way they want, though they generally (with one exception) vote with the results of the Popular vote.  So the people have only the illusion of Democracy, choosing instead intermediaries to worry about their political future.

I think that Scott Adams put it best:  Two Choices give the illusion of leadership.  As long as we are given a choice between two things, we are happy.  Republican or Democrat, Capitalism or Socialism, local vendors or corporate stores, etc.  Our society is built on these kinds of choices, these illusions of power and leadership.  Society doesn’t seem to want to worry about the details, just the choice.

But, you might ask, I have the freedom to choose, so that’s all I need, right?  Well, the thing is, those who want you to choose their way know we prefer simple choices, and as such try to frame our public opinions by trying to make their side seem like the side of reason.  They do this by distorting facts, telling half-truths, and providing “spin” on any and all positions.  This practice has been running in Politics since politics started.  As I’m sure the Ancient Greeks could attest to, it has had devastating results to nations and the lives of others.

Please don’t take anything I say to be supportive of any political agenda.  I just started to notice this pattern, and thought it interesting that democracy as we know it is nothing more than an exercise in managed choices for those who are too busy with their own lives to be bothered with “the issues”.  The only way to avoid that is to become active with the issues, which can take time away from other activities.  That again, is a choice…  how managed it is depends on ourselves, I suppose.